Free Tool
Expected Value Calculator
Enter the odds and your true probability of the outcome. We'll show you whether the bet is +EV and your expected profit per dollar staked.
Your edge over the market — typically from a sharper book or model output.
Expected value
15.50%
+EV — bet it
Expected profit$15.50
Implied probability47.62%
Edge over market7.38%
How EV works
Expected value is the long-run profit per dollar bet, averaged over infinite trials. EV = P(win) × profit − P(lose) × stake. If your true win probability beats the implied probability of the price you're getting, your bet is +EV. The bigger the gap, the harder you should hammer it. A +3% edge over thousands of bets is the entire game — books grind on a 4–5% vig and still print money because volume × edge wins. Same math works in your favor.